Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Antibiotics in the Animals We Eat | The Scientist

http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/31895/title/Antibiotics-in-the-Animals-We-Eat/


While US farmers and other stakeholders have argued tenaciously for the continuation of subtherapeutic dosing, Europeans adopted the “precautionary principle,” instituting sequential bans on the practice beginning in the mid-1990s. Arguments on both sides of this issue continue to the present day, but evidence of the negative consequences of low-dose antibiotic feeding has been mounting. Since 1976, several persuasive scientific studies have illustrated how animals fed low-dose antibiotics not only propagate resistant bacteria, but spread these resistant strains to farmers, their families, community residents, and ultimately, hospitalized patients. Particularly worrisome is the continued use in animals of antibiotics that are close structural relatives of those that are used in human medicine.  It is feared that, in time, these drugs will lose potency as bacteria express “cross-resistance” to the related drugs.

Iv-B business acts as an overtone to Oy-R battles against R disease. R acts in effect like terrorism in a population, trying to eradicate it as it hides between healthy cells like terrorists hide between civilians. Attacking these germs too much such as with an antiseptic environment for children can lead to mutations and resistance just like suppressing too much R dissent can lead to more R people and organized Ro resistance with mobs and demonstrations.

Some researchers have countered that the resistant bacterial strains found in serious hospital infections bear little or no resemblance to the strains found in farm animals. They argue that eliminating antibiotics on the farm would harm animal health, result in economic loss, and have little or no impact on reducing human morbidity and mortality. However, these rebuttals overlook the inherently promiscuous nature of bacteria—in particular, the transferable genetic elements they often carry (e.g., bacterial plasmids, transposons, phages) that can readily share DNA segments bearing resistance genes. They pass among strains, species, and even diverse bacterial genera, rearranging and accumulating even more resistance genes. Tracking the evolution of such complex bacterial exchanges from food animals to people poses a daunting challenge, making definitive proof elusive. But we argue that the preponderance of evidence, coupled with a diminishing pipeline of new antibiotics and the appearance of multidrug-resistant “superbugs,” warrants closer scrutiny of how and where we are using these antimicrobials—and the adoption of stricter measures of control.

The Panic Virus

This leaves us with two choices: We can either take it upon ourselves to do a systematic analysis of all the available information—which becomes ever less feasible as the world grows more complex—or we can trust experts and the media to be responsible about the information and advice they provide. When they're not, whether it's because they're naive or underresourced or lazy or because they've become true believers themselves, the consequences can be severe indeed. 

In an Iv-B economy the media become less reliable, they can hide and mislead for profit. If then being against vaccines can be profitable for some pundits then some might do it, those with more scruples get driven out of the market in a gresham's Dynamic. Iv pundits then might concentrate on a B audience like Oy predators on R prey. 

A recent Hib outbreak in Minnesota resulted in the deaths of several children—including one whose parents said they do not "believe" in vaccination. In 2009, there were more than 13,000 cases of pertussis (more commonly known as whooping cough) in Australia, which is the highest number ever recorded. Among those infected was Dana McCaffery, whose parents do believe in vaccination, but who was too young to get the pertussis vaccine. She died when she was thirty-two days old. Six months later, Dana's mother got an e-mail from a woman in Dallas, Texas, named Helen Bailey. Bailey was looking for someone who might understand her grief: Her son, Stetson, died of pertussis when he was just eleven weeks old. If anything, the situation is getting even worse: In 2010, a yearlong pertussis outbreak in California was so severe that in September some foreign governments began warning their citizens of the dangers of traveling to the region.

Iv-B contagion in the media can then lead to Oy-R contagion with diseases.

Then there's measles, which is the most infectious microbe known to man and has killed more children than any other disease in history. A decade after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the virus effectively eradicated everywhere in the Americas save for the Dominican Republic and Haiti, declining vaccination rates have led to an explosion of outbreaks around the world. In Great Britain, there's been more than a thousandfold increase in measles cases since 2000. In the United States, there have been outbreaks in many of the country's most populous states, including Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin. A recent outbreak in California began when a grade-schooler whose doctor supports "selective vaccination" was infected while on a family vacation in Europe. In an anonymously published article in Timemagazine, that child's mother said she "felt safe in making the choice to vaccinate selectively" because she lives in "a relatively healthy first-world country" with a well-functioning health care system. "Looking at the diseases mumps, measles and rubella in a country like the US . . . it doesn't tend to be a problem," she said. "Children will do fine with these diseases in a developed country that has good nutrition. And because I live in a country where the norm is vaccine, I can delay my vaccines."
That statement could not be more false. Measles remains deadly regardless of whether you live in the United States or in Uganda. (Before the MMR vaccine was introduced, its annual death toll in the United States reached into the hundreds, and each year rubella infections resulted in more than twenty thousand infants who were born blind, deaf, or developmentally disabled.) This mother's conviction also perfectly encapsulates one of the most vexing paradoxes about vaccines: The more effective they are, the less necessary they seem.

The Trust Molecule by Paul J. Zak - WS

The Trust Molecule by Paul J. Zak - WSJ.com

More strikingly, we found that you don't need to shoot a chemical up someone's nose, or have sex with them, or even give them a hug in order to create the surge in oxytocin that leads to more generous behavior. To trigger this "moral molecule," all you have to do is give someone a sign of trust. When one person extends himself to another in a trusting way—by, say, giving money—the person being trusted experiences a surge in oxytocin that makes her less likely to hold back and less likely to cheat. Which is another way of saying that the feeling of being trusted makes a person more…trustworthy. Which, over time, makes other people more inclined to trust, which in turn…

Bi-Ro team behavior can evolve not just because teams can have advantages in some situations, but through evolution itself. A chemical basis for cooperation in teams then can evolve if it leads to more survival or devolve if it hurts an animal or person's chances for survival. 

Corruption in Nigeria: Hard graft | The Economist

Corruption in Nigeria: Hard graft | The Economist


Hard graft

Apr 29th 2012, 20:10 by G.P. | ABUJA
JAMES IBORI, shop worker turned governor of Nigeria's oil-rich Delta state, was sentenced to 13 years in prison in a court in London on April 17th. His conviction for corruption has delighted the west African country. Graft is common in Nigerian politics but few go down for the crime.
Mr Ibori was arrested on 25 counts of money laundering, forgery and fraud. He pleaded guilty to 10 charges and to embezzling $73m, making it one of the largest money-laundering cases in British history. Moderate estimates suggest that around $8 billion is stolen from Nigeria’s state coffers every year. Mr Ibori is said to have swiped $79m from Delta state. He is the first high-profile Nigerian politician to be successfully prosecuted though ordinary Nigerians will be disappointed that it took the British justice system to put him behind bars.

Roy countries can have weak O police and so Oy corruption is hidden and deceptive, outside O police may help to reduce this. 
Mr Ibori's criminal career began in 1991, pilfering from tills at Wickes, a British hardware shop, where he worked. He forged ID documents to hide his crimes and sneaked back into Nigeria. There he entered politics, eventually becoming state governor and one of the country’s most powerful politicians. He amassed a large fortune which he spent lavishly, buying, among other things, a house in Hampstead worth over $3.5m, which he paid for in cash, a $5m mansion in South Africa and a fleet of cars worth over $1m.
The EFCC, Nigeria's anti-corruption agency, tried to prosecute Mr Ibori after he left office but his reputation and wealth allowed him to dodge any charges.

They can become Y with a team of other corrupt people, they can then use Oy criminals and corrupt politicians like agents to shield them from the O police. Here the EFCC would be more Ro where their team nature would be opposed to Y.  

He managed to transfer his court case from northern Nigeria to a court in Delta state, where the judge—his cousin—dismissed all 170 charges against him. A former head of the EFCC, Nuhu Ribadu, alleged Mr Ibori tried to bribe him with $15m to drop the investigations into his affairs. When he pursued the case, Mr Ribadu was removed from office and later went into exile in Britain.
Nigeria's anti-corruption agency has made feeble attempts to clean up Nigerian politics. Since 2005, it has charged 19 former state governors with corruption. But none has gone to jail despite the charges. Recently, Timpire Sylva, another former state governor, quarrelled with the president and was sacked. The EFCC then said he had embezzled millions of dollars and promptly declared him a fugitive. Corruption, it seems, is only a problem when you fall from grace.

The Y team tends to cooperate and protect each other, if someone falls down to Oy though then competition there can cause them to collapse and be caught by Ro.

The Tipping Point

The Tipping Point
by Malcolm Gladwell
CHAPTER ONE
The Three Rules of Epidemics
In the mid-1990s, the city of Baltimore was attacked by an epidemic of syphilis. In the space of a year, from 1995 to
1996, the number of children born with the disease increased by 500 percent. If you look at Baltimore's syphilis rates
on a graph, the line runs straight for years and then, when it hits 1995, rises almost at a right angle.
What caused Baltimore's syphilis problem to tip?

In poor Roy areas this can be an Oy-R problem and hence hidden and deceptive, people would tend to lie about how they got diseases. Also much of their lifestyle would be hidden because of criminalized behavior. Sex can be an Oy predator to R prey relationship or disease can grow in an R contagious situation. Much of this doesn't show up in statistics because it can be insignificant in there. This fringe of society can form where statistics doesn't find signficant enough data to take action leading to chaotic and random influences poorly understood unless it spills over into significance. 

According to the Centers for Disease Control, the problem was crack
cocaine. Crack is known to cause a dramatic increase in the kind of risky sexual behavior that leads to the spread of
things like HIV and syphilis. It brings far more people into poor areas to buy drugs, which then increases the
likelihood that they will take an infection home with them to their own neighborhood. It changes the patterns of social
connections between neighborhoods. Crack, the CDC said, was the little push that the syphilis problem needed to turn
into a raging epidemic.

This is an R infection into more wealthy V-Bi areas, they might also go out to steal or for prostitution. Often they are contained by Oy parts of the O police to push them out of these areas as pests. This kind of policing can be unstable leading to booms and busts of crime from R as well as their contagion into other neighborhoods.

John Zenilman of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, an expert on sexually transmitted diseases, has another
explanation: the breakdown of medical services in the city's poorest neighborhoods. "In 1990-91, we had thirty-six
thousand patient visits at the city's sexually transmitted disease clinics," Zenilman says. "Then the city decided to
gradually cut back because of budgetary problems. The number of clinicians [medical personnel] went from seventeen
to ten. The number of physicians went from three to essentially nobody. Patient visits dropped to twenty-one
thousand. There also was a similar drop in the amount of field outreach staff. There was a lot of politics — things that
used to happen, like computer upgrades, didn't happen. It was a worst-case scenario of city bureaucracy not
functioning. They would run out of drugs."
When there were 36,000 patient visits a year in the STD clinics of Baltimore's inner city, in other words, the disease
was kept in equilibrium. At some point between 36,000 and 21,000 patient visits a year, according to Zenilman, the
disease erupted. It began spilling out of the inner city, up the streets and highways that connect those neighborhoods
to the rest of the city. Suddenly, people who might have been infectious for a week before getting treated were now
going around infecting others for two or three or four weeks before they got cured. The breakdown in treatment made
syphilis a much bigger issue than it had been before.

The doctors here can be acting as Iv keeping a lid on these diseases in B people, they often work anonymously as well. It can also be a Bi-Ro community effort to quench the chaos of this disease with cooperatives, they build up enough healthy people in these team communities to isolate the disease enough so it cannot easily spread. So there can be a balance between the Oy police cracking down on these people deterring bad behavior and Ro clinics quenching the R contagion. This is then a balance where the O police watch over both Oy and Ro. When Ro experiences cutbacks the situation becomes more chaotic and can escalate into an epidemic.

There is a third theory, which belongs to John Potterat, one of the country's leading epidemiologists. His culprits are
the physical changes in those years affecting East and West Baltimore, the heavily depressed neighborhoods on either
side of Baltimore's downtown, where the syphilis problem was centered. In the mid-1990s, he points out, the city of
Baltimore embarked on a highly publicized policy of dynamiting the old 1960s-style public housing high-rises in East
and West Baltimore. Two of the most publicized demolitions — Lexington Terrace in West Baltimore and Lafayette
Courts in East Baltimore — were huge projects, housing hundreds of families, that served as centers for crime and
infectious disease. At the same time, people began to move out of the old row houses in East and West Baltimore, as
those began to deteriorate as well.
"It was absolutely striking," Potterat says, of the first time he toured East and West Baltimore. "Fifty percent of the
row houses were boarded up, and there was also a process where they destroyed the projects. What happened was a
kind of hollowing out. This fueled the diaspora. For years syphilis had been confined to a specific region of Baltimore,
within highly confined sociosexual networks. The housing dislocation process served to move these people to other
parts of Baltimore, and they took their syphilis and other behaviors with them."

This is an R neighborhood where much is G public or abandoned property, when this is cleaned out like a hiding place for R insects then they spread out elsewhere to find other hiding places and can take disease with them. So trying to close down R ghettoes and projects can just cause R people to move elsewhere rather than making them change. 

Predators for Peace - By Jack C. Chow | Foreign Policy

Predators for Peace - By Jack C. Chow | Foreign Policy

Humanitarian relief can be a frustrating, dangerous task. Even the best-intentioned donors can face hostile conditions or less than honorable intermediaries. Two years ago, the Geneva-based Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria issued a report describing how corrupt officials in Djibouti defrauded its programs of millions of dollars in cash, medicines and health supplies. Another well-organized theft ring, the group found, was operating across several African countries stealing anti-malarial drugs from supply chains and reselling them in the black market. Also two years ago, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) discovered that inefficiencies in the supply chain had left a backlog of bed nets languishing in Nigerian warehouses, giving corrupt officials more time and opportunity to steal them.

Usually these aid programs are like V people helping R, they are often in Roy poor countries where the R people cannot defend themselves against Y dictators and warlords. It is in effect like Y lions attacking R gazelles, they can only run and hide if they can. Aid can then try to establish an I-O police force between them. These Y predators can then raid these food supplies preventing R recovery and a stable food chain of a society. This is like R predators cleaning out R prey so animals in between them on the food chain starve. Often this is done also with Oy corrupt officials part of O policing or with Oy thieves and soldiers.

Monday, February 25, 2013

The Great Cholesterol Con - Vioxx

Vioxx, the arthritis drug, was estimated to have been linked to more
than 100,000 deaths in the USA in two years. And no one noticed! The
fatal effects of Vioxx were only picked up coincidentally as part of a
major trial to see if this drug could protect against bowel cancer.

Side effects of drugs might not be picked up in a V-Bi trial because they
are chaotic and hidden.  

The
impact on mortality was noted, and highlighted, by a rather heroic
employee of the Food and Drugs Administration (FDA), Dr David
Graham. For his efforts in. protecting the safety of the public he was
smeared in the press and ruthlessly attacked. Luckily, a certain Senator
Charles Grassley got involved in the case. He wrote a letter to Lester
Crawford, the acting commissioner at the FDA at the time. I reprint
some sections of it here, because it is an absolute cracker. A symphony
in restrained rage:
As Chairman of the Committee on Finance, I have made it clear
to you that I expect that Dr David Graham's right as a federal
employee will be fully respected by the Food and Drug
Administration. Last Wednesday, November 24, 2004, I
requested that the Office of Inspector General (DIG),
Department of Health and Human Services conduct a complete
and thorough investigation into the facts, events, persons,
policies, regulations and laws relating to allegations that a
number of management level employees at the FDA may have
acted 'to discredit an outspoken agency safety office who was
challenging the FDA's drug safety policies.' I referred to the
attached article from the Washington Post entitled, 'Attempt to
Discredit Whistle-Blower Alleged.'...

Often V companies use Iv agents to sell drugs that may have hidden
side effects, this is like door to door salesmen who might know their
product is not good but deceive B customers to get commissions. Some
of these Iv can become whistleblowers, they become then a path for I-O
regulators to get to the Y-V companies just like oy thieves might turn on the
Y mafia. So if the I-O police become Iv-Oy biased then they help 
whistle blowers much less causing them to not expose Y-V, then this chaos
can grow to a much larger problem before being exposed.   

I'd like to reiterate what I have repeatedly stated in writing and
have verbally communicated to your agency, namely that this
Committee takes its responsibility to protect witnesses and
particularly government witnesses very seriously, and that holds
particularly true for Dr Graham.'...
I understand that retaliatory action against dissident employees
can come under many guises. Therefore, I also request that you
address allegations that administrative action may be taken
against Dr Graham, including that he may be terminated or
transferred against his wishes to a job other than conducting
scientific research. Please advise me whether there is any truth to
these allegations and, if so, explain what actions are being taken to
transfer Dr Graham from his present position and duties at FDA ...
On at least 6 separate occasions - 3 by letter and 3 in meetings
with FDA staff - I have requested that FDA employees be advised
that they may come to Congress and speak freely without fear of
reprisal. Do you believe that FDA employees are free to speak to
members ofCongress without advising FDA's Office of Legislation?
If so, when are you going to act on this request?
Ouch!
This sorry saga highlights that fact that a drug could potentially kill
hundreds of thousands of people without anyone actually noticing.
You may think that this must be impossible. There have to be agencies
out there monitoring this sort of thing on a day-to-day basis, combing
through the statistics with a fine-tooth comb? Not so - and anyway,
how could they?

Usually I-O depends on whistlblowers so if they are not protected and
given commissions in effect comparable to what Y-V give them then these
things are not exposed. Often trials can also be biased to Iv-Oy which 
hides chaotic side effects. 

Drug safety is supposed to be fully established in the
clinical trial process. Once a drug is out there in the community it could
wipe out thousands, unnoticed - witness Vioxx.

From The Great Cholesterol Con

Firstly, I'll attempt to convey the scale of the problem, which is quite frightening.
This from a paper published
in the Journal of the American Medical Association in 1998:
Russian life expectancy has fallen sharply in the 799Os, but the
impact of the major causes of death on that decline has not been
measured. Age-adjusted mortality in Russia rose by almost 33%
between 7990 and 7994. During that period, life expectancy for
Russian men and women declined dramatically from 63.8 and 74.4
years to 57.7 and 71.2 years respectively ... More than 75% of the
decline in life expectancy was due to increased mortality rates for
ages 25 to 64 years. Increases in cardiovascular mortality
accounted for 41.6% of the decline in life expectancy for women
and 33.4% for men.

The incidence of heart disease can be looked at with randomized
V-Bi trials, it can also be looked at with cause and effect relationships
in Iv-B. In this case there is a high correlation between stress and heart
disease, this is a chaotic effect like strain on a piece of metal causing fatigue.
In the same way the human body can be stressed to the point of developing
cracks and weaknesses that become chronic disease. It is then like
a building after being stressed by an earthquake except it can heal itself to
a limited degree. Heart disease like this might seem more like a contagion
or miasma becaus eit doesn't correlate well with what the random trials
are looking at. Stress might cause cholesterol buildup from cortisol and lead
to lowering cholesterol to prevent this rather than reducing the stress. This
stress being Iv-B and Oy-R tends to come from hidden and misleading causes
and so like with the causes of stress in the global economy leading to the
GFC it is easy to miss.  

The striking rise in Russian mortality is beyond the peacetime
experience of industrialized countries, with a 5 year decline in life
expectancy in 4 years time. Many factors appear to be acting
simultaneously, including economic and social instability, high rates
of tobacco and alcohol consumption, poor nutrition, depression,
and deterioration of the health care system. Problems in data
quality and reporting appear unable to account for these findings.
Male Russian life expectancy is now 20 years less than that in most of
western Europe. And this pattern can be seen across eastern Europe:
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Ukraine. You name an eastern European
country - after the Wall came down they were all plunged into a health
crisis. In truth, Poland seems to be emerging from the 9ther side, and
heart-disease rates have been falling for more than ten years.
Hopefully, the other countries will soon be following suit.
One group of researchers decided to find out what was behind this
unprecedented rise in heart disease.They decided to look at men living
in Sweden and Lithuania. What's more, they decided to measure the
differences in 'psychosocial strain: I can do no better than to reprint the
abstract, because the findings could not be more clear:
Increased psychosocial strain in Lithuanian versus Swedish
men (the LiVicordia Study)

OBJECTIVE: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality is four
. times higher in 50-year-old Lithuanian men than in 50-year-
old Swedish men. The difference cannot be explained by
standard risk factors. The objective of this study was to
examine differences in psychosocial risk factors for CHD in the
two countries.

METHODS: The LMcordia study is a cross-sectional survey
comparing 150 randomly selected 50-year-old men in each of
the two cities: Vilnius, Lithuania, and Linkoplng, Sweden. As
part of the study, a broad range of psychosocial characteristics,
known to predict CHD, were investigated.
RESULTS: In the men from Vilnius compared with those from
Linkoplng, we found a cluster of psychosocial risk factors for
CHD; higher job strain, lower social support at work, lower
emotional support, and lower social integration. Vilnius men
also showed lower coping, self-esteem, and sense of
coherence, higher vital exhaustion, and depression. Quality of
life and perceived health were low,er and expectations of ill
health within 5 to 10 years were higher in Vilnius men.
Correlations between measurements on traditional and
psychosocial risk factors were few and weak.

CONCLUSIONS: The Vilnius men, representing the population
with a four-fold higher CHD mortality, had unfavourable
characteristics on a cluster of psychosocial risk factors for CHD in
comparison with the Linkoplng men. We suggest that this
finding may provide a basis for possible new explanations of the
differences in CHD mortality between Lithuania and Sweden.
The investigators then went one step further. They measured the levels
of cortisol, in response to a standard stress test. Thirty minutes after the
stress was applied the change in baseline cortisol level was five times
greater in the Swedish men than the Lithuanian men (88.4nmol/1 vs
18.1 nmol/1 l.ln their words:
A low peak cortisol response was significantly related to high baseline
cortisol, current smoking, and vital exhaustion. The findings suggest a
physiological mechanism of chronic psychosocial stress, which may
contribute to increased risk for cardiovascular death.
Right is that enough for you? If you don't believe that social
dislocation causes heart disease by now, I'll never be able to convince you.

Curved Balls | A diary of deception and distortion

Curved Balls | A diary of deception and distortion


For one reason or another, I’m spending a lot of time talking to microbiologists and virologists at the moment. It’s a very hard job to get them to take off the ‘ologist at the office’ hat in favour of other headgear called, for the sake of argument, ‘species philosophy’. But when they do, these are very seriously interesting people.

The oy-R side of medicine is often hidden and people specializing in it often have chaotic ideas not well suited to V-Bi trials and normal opinions. 
“The thing is,” one of them said to me recently, “We’ve lost the battle against bugs. The media don’t want to talk about it, and nobody in either government or the nhs will admit it. But we have lost: micro-organisms and airborne viruses mutate so quickly today, we can’t keep up. What’s worse, most people in the West have stuffed so many antibiotics down themselves, they have nowhere near enough natural resistance in the first place”.

Germs and viruses are R growing secretly as a contagion, we use Oy antibiotics to kill them but this is like with R terrorists. The ones that survive are stronger so we are creating innovations in them, they then develop more Ro resistance by getting genetic code off each other like terrorists getting ideas on how to defeat Oy soldiers. R germs innovate and then antibiotics need to counter innovate against them. This is also occurring with computer viruses as they evove.
“People get no chance to build up proper resistance these days,” another senior practitioner agreed. “They eat the wrong stuff, and they routinely use powerful hygiene cleaners everywhere. The authorities are creating the perfect conditions in which a new, aggressive virus could wreak havoc. Far too many people see that as unwarranted alarmism, but they’re wrong.”

V-Bi authorities see the status quo as normal and the talk of exponential contagion as deviant. This becomes like the miasma theory where use of cleaners can cause germs to spread differently because people are having their Y-Ro resistance weakened. 
I admit to being fascinated by all this, because it smacks to me once again of inflexible tramline thinking. Five years ago I sat next to a young geneticist at supper.
“You know when natural selection began being more aggressive?” he asked me. I confessed to ignorance on the subject.
“The third decade of the nineteenth century,” he continued, “When anaesthetic was discovered. That changed the invasive surgery survival rate from 3 in 20 to 5 out of 10 almost immediately. From that moment on, natural selection has been trying to cope with having lots of folks alive who, according to its own rules, should’ve died.”
His thesis was that evolution’s psycho hitman Natural Selection was thus having to work harder – and find new ways to kill us genetically – as a natural form of population control. (Our sensitivity to hypertension via excess salt, I am told, is a development that has increased dramatically over the last century).
But micro-organisms (bacteria) and viruses that rapidly mutate are another matter entirely. The more we look for antibiotics to kill the bacteria, the more their mutation rates increase….and the more our defences are weakened.

Anaesthetic is an Oy counter innovation against R disease, when people's immune systems  like Oy predators survive a predator they usually die from then they are more fragile. For example Oy hyena cubs might rarely survive if their mothers cannot get much food, the selection effects of bad mates then might not be apparent until those cubs grow up weak and unable to catch food. 

A cold?

http://dlib.nyu.edu/undercover/sites/dlib.nyu.edu.undercover/files/documents/uploads/editors/NYDailyNews_1973Jan23_pg7.pdf

An interesting view of Iv-B  deceptions in the medical profession, exposed by Iv undercover reporting.

Testing Standard Medical Practices - NYTimes.com

Testing Standard Medical Practices - NYTimes.com


But in 2002, a randomized trial showed that preventive hormone replacement caused more problems (more heart disease and breast cancer) than it solved (fewer hip fractures and colon cancer). Then, in 2009, trials showed that P.S.A. screening led to many unnecessary surgeries and had a dubious effect on prostate cancer deaths.
How would you have felt — after over a decade of following your doctor’s advice — to learn that high-quality randomized trials of these standard practices had only just been completed? And that they showed that both did more harm than good? Justifiably furious, I’d say. Because these practices affected millions of Americans, they are locked in a tight competition for the greatest medical error on record.

Medical markets like this grow through the cracks of trials like Iv-B roots and branches, as the trials become larger and more randomized then the drugs become more V-Bi causing some of these cracks to close up. However these cracks can continue by fiddling trials, holding back negative results, allowing small improvements to be touted as much better than the null hypothesis, as well as miasma like effects. For example a new antidpressants might engender optimism in people which spreads to friends like a miasma, however it might not work better than a sugar pill.
The problem goes far beyond these two. The truth is that for a large part of medical practice, we don’t know what works. But we pay for it anyway. Our annual per capita health care expenditure is now over $8,000. Many countries pay half that — and enjoy similar, often better, outcomes. Isn’t it time to learn which practices, in fact, improve our health, and which ones don’t?
To find out, we need more medical research. But not just any kind of medical research. Medical research is dominated by research on the new: new tests, new treatments, new disorders and new fads. But above all, it’s about new markets.

The drugs don't work: a modern medical

The drugs don't work: a modern medical scandal | Ben Goldacre | Business | The Guardian


But we had both been misled. In October 2010, a group of researchers was finally able to bring together all the data that had ever been collected on reboxetine, both from trials that were published and from those that had never appeared in academic papers. When all this trial data was put together, it produced a shocking picture. Seven trials had been conducted comparing reboxetine against a placebo. Only one, conducted in 254 patients, had a neat, positive result, and that one was published in an academic journal, for doctorsand researchers to read. But six more trials were conducted, in almost 10 times as many patients. All of them showed that reboxetine was no better than a dummy sugar pill. None of these trials was published. I had no idea they existed.

An exponentially growing industry between Iv pharmaceutical companies and their patients, also doctors can act as Iv agents. Also sometimes the companies can be a V cartel like structure that use salesmen and doctors to deceive on theri behalf.

The system exploits flaws in statistics where small random differences in trials can become signficant enough to bolster sales by fiddling the parameters.  By witholding negative data it is like tossing a coin that appears random, witholding results of when it comes up tails will make it appear to favor heads more often. 
It got worse. The trials comparing reboxetine against other drugs showed exactly the same picture: three small studies, 507 patients in total, showed that reboxetine was just as good as any other drug. They were all published. But 1,657 patients' worth of data was left unpublished, and this unpublished data showed that patients on reboxetine did worse than those on other drugs. If all this wasn't bad enough, there was also the side-effects data. The drug looked fine in the trials that appeared in the academic literature; but when we saw the unpublished studies, it turned out that patients were more likely to have side-effects, more likely to drop out of taking the drug and more likely to withdraw from the trial because of side-effects, if they were taking reboxetine rather than one of its competitors.

These chaotic reactions which random statistical methods are not designed to measure. People get reactions from the drugs at below the signficance level but still want to withdraw, this withdrawal then doesn't count as a bad side effect. 
I did everything a doctor is supposed to do. I read all the papers, I critically appraised them, I understood them, I discussed them with the patient and we made a decision together, based on the evidence. In the published data, reboxetine was a safe and effective drug. In reality, it was no better than a sugar pill and, worse, it does more harm than good. As a doctor, I did something that, on the balance of all the evidence, harmed my patient, simply because unflattering data was left unpublished.

Iv-B becomes like a game of Chinese Whispers where no one might even be deceptive, it is an artefact of statistics itself as a Type One error where the null hypothesis is wrongly rejected. Also these antidepressants can be altering people's consciousness like alcohol does without treating a disease, people then report feeling different or distracted from their depression as a positive result.  
Nobody broke any law in that situation, reboxetine is still on the market and the system that allowed all this to happen is still in play, for all drugs, in all countries in the world. Negative data goes missing, for all treatments, in all areas of science. The regulators and professional bodies we would reasonably expect to stamp out such practices have failed us. These problems have been protected from public scrutiny because they're too complex to capture in a soundbite. This is why they've gone unfixed by politicians, at least to some extent; but it's also why it takes detail to explain. The people you should have been able to trust to fix these problems have failed you, and because you have to understand a problem properly in order to fix it, there are some things you need to know.

This is a disconnect, Iv-B drigs sell exponentially until they hit a ceiling where the bad side effects reach the V-Bi transparent scientific community and the poor results are exposed by statistics as significant. They might then collapse to a floor of a drug is dangerous or grow and collapse along this ceiling like a contagion such as the flu that no one can eradicate.
Drugs are tested by the people who manufacture them, in poorly designed trials, on hopelessly small numbers of weird, unrepresentative patients, and analysed using techniques that are flawed by design, in such a way that they exaggerate the benefits of treatments. Unsurprisingly, these trials tend to produce results that favour the manufacturer. When trials throw up results that companies don't like, they are perfectly entitled to hide them from doctors and patients, so we only ever see a distorted picture of any drug's true effects. Regulators see most of the trial data, but only from early on in a drug's life, and even then they don't give this data to doctors or patients, or even to other parts of government. This distorted evidence is then communicated and applied in a distorted fashion.
In their 40 years of practice after leaving medical school, doctors hear about what works ad hoc, from sales reps, colleagues and journals. But those colleagues can be in the pay of drug companies – often undisclosed – and the journals are, too. And so are the patient groups. And finally, academic papers, which everyone thinks of as objective, are often covertly planned and written by people who work directly for the companies, without disclosure. Sometimes whole academic journals are owned outright by one drug company. Aside from all this, for several of the most important and enduring problems in medicine, we have no idea what the best treatment is, because it's not in anyone's financial interest to conduct any trials at all.

People are competing with each other so have incentives to deceive, also they start to believe the misinformation coming from each other like Chinese Whispers until exposed. An insudtry might then be patched up as zombie drugs that don't really work but are used in the hope that people spending money on them will lead to investments to find drugs that do work. This is like propping up zombie banks after the GFC in the hope they will revive with reinvestment. Allowing the fraud to be fully exposed might cause the antidepressant industry to collapse, seeing this as bad is the same as covering up fraud in the banks to avoid panic. So after reaching the chaotic ceiling a crash to the floor is prevented creating zombie drugs.

What a Failed Vegas Sex Pill and The Meningitis Outbreak Have In Common - ProPublica

What a Failed Vegas Sex Pill and The Meningitis Outbreak Have In Common - ProPublica


This could have been prevented. More than a decade ago, David Kessler, former FDA commissioner, issued a warning about the future of compounded drugs at a Congressional hearing prior to passage of the Food and Drug Administration Modernization Act of 1997. He said that ambiguity in the law could allow for “large scale manufacturing under the guise of pharmacy compounding,” leading to a “shadow industry” of unapproved generic drugs.

An Iv-B and Oy-R business caused by weak I-O regulation, it is like the shadow banking industry that led to the GFC. The FDC was not permitted to police it which is like Clinton and later Greenspan preventing regulation of derivatives. 
Provisions in the act designed to clarify FDA oversight of compounding pharmacies — including restrictions on their ability to advertise drugs — were later struck down by courts. Still, the FDA says it can act in some circumstances, such as when a drug is contaminated or mislabeled.
Miller said he believes only a few rogue compounding pharmacies are operating outside traditional boundaries. The New England Compounding Center “appears to have been acting as a manufacturer without being registered as a manufacturer with the (Food and Drug Administration), or registering with the Massachusetts Board of Pharmacy as a manufacturer,” he said.
“Something does need to change. That’s something our association is grappling with right now,” he said. In the wake of the outbreak, officials from the academy are in contact with congressional staffers to discuss how to increase oversight without stifling traditional pharmacy practices, Miller added.
Other cases have raised alarms. In 2007, a Portland Tribune investigation revealed patient deaths that were linked to a bad batch of drugs, used to treat back pain, from a Texas compounding pharmacy. A pharmacist who consults with the advocacy group Public Citizen called the compounding pharmacy industry a “shadow drug industry,” in an interview with the newspaper.

The Iv pharmacies and B patients create chaos between them, they interact with each other having no police or public Bi discussion to moderate their behavior so it grows to a ceiling and then crashes to a floor.

Asymptosis » The Miasma School of Economics

Asymptosis » The Miasma School of Economics

I’ve been reading Steven Johnson’s The Ghost Map, about the London cholera epidemic of 1854, and one passage reminded me exactly of today’s economics discipline.
The sense of similarity was heightened because I also (instigated by Nick Rowe) happened to be reading Mankiw’s micro textbook section on the rising marginal cost of production — a notion that 1. is ridiculous on its face, 2. is completely contrary to how profit-maximizing producers think, and 3. is based on just-plain incorrect math.* It’s just one of many central pillars of “textbook” economics that are still being taught with a straight face, even though they been resoundingly disproved by the discipline’s own leading practitioners, on the discipline’s own terms, and using its own language, constructs, and methods. These zombie ideas just won’t die. (Or to quote my friend Ole, “People never learn, and they never forget.”)

Businesses usually run on a mixture of chaos and randomness, sometimes then they do think of the rising marginal cost as Iv-B. This is covered in my text Microaperiomics. It can also represent part of a fight between V-Bi Keynesians and Iv-B Austrians. 
Economics today has a profound resemblance to medicine before the germ theory of disease.
Lots of people in 1854 were trying to figure out what caused cholera, and how it was transmitted. The dominant theory was “miasma” — basically bad air emanating from smelly, unsanitary conditions, especially in poor areas with lots of leaking, overflowing basement cesspools full of shit. These were contaminating the water supply, of course, so the real transmission mechanism was people drinking the effluent from previous victims.

This is a choaitc situation where R germs can grow undetected, which is why it was so long before germs were discovered. 
The solution to the miasma problem? Empty the cesspools into the Thames — systematically poisoning the water supply. Yes, that’s what they did.
The miasma theory had incredible staying power, even though it was clearly and patently disproved by the thousands of Londoners whose vocation was slopping through the sewers, day and night (presumably in the thickest of possible miasmas), searching for anything valuable that they could sell. They didn’t get cholera or die at any greater rate — perhaps even less.

Often these proofs are statistical in nature and do not really disprove a chaotic miasma theory. For example a euphoria in a real estate market could be described as a miasma that causes irrational exuberance in people like a virus. Memes can spread on the internet like a kind of miasma. Also even in disease a miasma can still spread, for example if stress weakens the immune system then the stress around sick people in an epidemic might make them get sicker more often. Panic then can flow like a miasma from one to another bringing disease with it. 
Johnson:
Why was the miasma theory so persuasive? Why did so many brilliant minds cling to it, despite the mounting evidence that suggested it was false? … Whenever smart people cling to an outlandishly incorrect idea despite substantial evidence to the contrary, something interesting is at work.
Often a V-Bi process calls an Iv-B idea outlandish meaning that it is deviant or on the edge of the normal curve. 

In the case of miasma, that something involves a convergence of multiple forces, all coming together to prop up a theory that should have died out decades before. Some of those forces were ideological in nature, matters of social prejudice and convention. Some revolved around conceptual limitations, failures of imagination and analysis. Some involve the basic wiring of the human brain itself. Each on its own might not have been strong enough to persuade an entire public-health system to empty raw sewage into the Thames. But together they created a kind of perfect storm of error.
Error is itself a V-Bi term relating to random statistics, error denoting the edges of the normal curve. here then the right idea is the normal one. These ideas can grow reaching tipping points where they caused the health system to do something abnormal. As they reach a ceiling this chaos causes enough bad effects so that the miasma forces go into retreat but still not go lower than a floor.

Miasma certainly had the force of tradition on its side. … Just about every epidemic disease on record has been, at one point or another, attributed to poisoned miasma. …
But tradition alone can’t account for the predominance of the miasma theory. The Victorians who clung to it were in almost every other respect true revolutionaries, living in revolutionary times: Chadwick was inventing a whole new model for shaping public health; Farr transforming the use of statistics; Nightingale challenging countless received ideas about the role of women in professional life, as well as the practice of nursing. Dickens, Engels, Mayhew — these  were not people naturally inclined to accept the status quo. In fact, they were all, in their separate ways, spoiling for a fight. So it’s not sufficient to blame their adherence to the miasma theory purely on its long pedigree.
The perseverance of miasma theory into the nineteenth century was as much a matter of instinct as it was intellectual tradition. Again and again in the literature of miasma, the argument is inextricably linked to the author’s visceral disgust at the smells of the city. The sense of smell is often described as the most primitive of the senses, provoking powerful feelings of lust or repulsion…

Ted Kaptchuk of Harvard Medical School studies placebos | Harvard Magazine Jan-Feb 2013

Ted Kaptchuk of Harvard Medical School studies placebos | Harvard Magazine Jan-Feb 2013


TWO WEEKS INTO Ted Kaptchuk’s first randomized clinical drug trial, nearly a third of his 270 subjects complained of awful side effects. All the patients had joined the study hoping to alleviate severe arm pain: carpal tunnel, tendinitis, chronic pain in the elbow, shoulder, wrist. In one part of the study, half the subjects received pain-reducing pills; the others were offered acupuncture treatments. And in both cases, people began to call in, saying they couldn’t get out of bed. The pills were making them sluggish, the needles caused swelling and redness; some patients’ pain ballooned to nightmarish levels. “The side effects were simply amazing,” Kaptchuk explains; curiously, they were exactly what patients had been warned their treatment might produce. But even more astounding, most of the other patients reported real relief, and those who received acupuncture felt even better than those on the anti-pain pill. These were exceptional findings: no one had ever proven that acupuncture worked better than painkillers. But Kaptchuk’s study didn’t prove it, either. The pills his team had given patients were actually made of cornstarch; the “acupuncture” needles were retractable shams that never pierced the skin. The study wasn’t aimed at comparing two treatments. It was designed to compare two fakes.
Although Kaptchuk, an associate professor of medicine, has spent his career studying these mysterious human reactions, he doesn’t argue that you can simply “think yourself better.” “Sham treatment won’t shrink tumors or cure viruses,” he says.
But researchers have found that placebo treatments—interventions with no active drug ingredients—can stimulate real physiological responses, from changes in heart rate and blood pressure to chemical activity in the brain, in cases involving pain, depression, anxiety, fatigue, and even some symptoms of Parkinson’s.

Iv-B deceptions can spread through a society causing long term illnesses, but also changes in attitudes leading to booms and busts. A placebo can also oscillate between a floor and ceiling, after first use the placebo effect increases until it reaches a crisis level where the fake effects are exposed. In the same way euphoria in the markets might cause a boom until they must confront reality and collapse. In a placebo effect there would be feedback loops where people are reacting to partially false information instead of reality like in Chinese Whispers.

What a New Doctor Learned About Medical Mistakes From Her Mom’s Death - ProPublica

What a New Doctor Learned About Medical Mistakes From Her Mom’s Death - ProPublica


The hospital she was in is a nationally ranked hospital near Seattle. It wasn’t that we felt the place was not up to snuff or not capable of providing good care. But I hadn’t realized how hard it is to keep a complicated patient safe in the hospital. The harm is rarely caused by actual negligence. The vast majority of cases involve a lot of people doing fairly reasonable things, and somehow something just falls through the cracks.

Chaotic conditions often lie hidden until they reach a level to be seen, much like a contagion. In this hospital many of these chaotic problems are hidden or lied about, statistically then the hospital might be seen to run well without addressing them.
One day my mom fell out of bed in middle of the night. They had bed alarms to notify nurse if a patient starts to fall out of bed. But there’s also a chair alarm, and the nurses showed us that there were only enough electric outlets for one alarm at a time, and the alarms had identical cords – making it hard for the nurses to tell which alarm was plugged in. The day my mom fell, the wrong alarm was plugged in.
There are lots of easy solutions to this. They could make the cords different. Or they could have two outlets, so both could be plugged in. I certainly hadn’t thought about that as a medical student, but all of a sudden it became the most important thing in my day when my mom was in the hospital.
Medication errors were frequent. My mom was on a seizure medication that needed the dose adjusted according to her nutritional status. The physicians probably knew this, but with all the handoffs, a new doctor would come in, see the drug level was low in her blood – and without carefully observing her nutrition – and then up the dose. She was being accidentally overdosed on the medication which caused her to sleep for days. As somebody who has a life expectancy on the order of months, those days were very important to us.
The biggest error related to her chemotherapy, which was administered by a device straight into the fluid of her brain. They’d give her the chemo about once a week, and it was supposed to last an entire week. One weekend her normal oncologist wasn’t on so the covering physician administered the chemo. About a week later her normal oncologist came to us in tears. She’d discovered that her colleague had not administered the right chemotherapy drug, and the type she’d received had only lasted a day, not a week. My mom had effectively gone for a week without getting any treatment. For her this probably didn’t change her life expectancy drastically, but it probably changed it a little bit. But this event itself was really terrifying. It had the potential to make a huge difference in the life expectancy of other patients.

Study: Why Psychotic Teenagers Smoke More Pot - Lindsay Abrams - The Atlantic

Study: Why Psychotic Teenagers Smoke More Pot - Lindsay Abrams - The Atlantic

This illustrates the problem with V-Bi statistics, there is a correlation between the two but the cause and effect may be reversed or go both ways. The other issue is whether psychotics are smoking marijuana to take their mind off their condition rather than treating it, like people drinking to forget their problems. Another problem is psychotics might be deceptive, teenagers in general are often hiding their drug use. it is then like an Iv-B contagion, users interact with their pushers and often little is known about who is taking drugs for what reason, whether self medicating or if they are causing psychosis. This is a disconnect caused by weak I-O policing, this Iv-B underground drug business goes on while in the V-Bi community it is invisible to them except for occasional outbursts from psychotic people.


PROBLEM: When we first figured out that there's a solid association between mental illness and marijuana use in adolescents, the most common, if panicked assumption was that smoking pot must mess with teens' developing brains, in some cases actually causing psychosis. Although evidence does not exist to prove that conclusively, other studies have found that marijuana is at least associated with an increased risk of developing a psychiatric disorder. But what if we're thinking about this backwards, and people with psychosis are just more likely to smoke pot?
METHODOLOGY: Researchers in the Netherlands surveyed over 2,000 Dutch teens about their pot smoking habits throughout adolescence. They then asked them questions -- like, "Do you ever see things that others do not?" --  meant to identify "thought," "social," and "attention" problems, and determined whether these symptoms appeared before or after they began using marijuana. A family history of mental illness, along with alcohol and tobacco use, was factored in to the analysis.
RESULTS: Among the 44 percent of teens who admitted to smoking pot, use of the drug at age 16 was linked to the development of psychotic symptoms at age 19. But the researchers also found that where kids began to display signs of psychosis at an early age, they then tended to start using marijuana in their later teens -- for them, the psychosis came before the drug use.
CONCLUSION: The association between psychosis and marijuana use is not one of clear cause and effect --  it appears to run in both directions. While smoking pot was indeed linked to an increased risk of psychosis, initially having psychotic symptoms was also associated with an increased likelihood of later marijuana use.
IMPLICATIONS: As with previous studies, the researchers weren't able to establish that marijuana use is directly causing an increased risk of psychosis, or vice versa. Their point is that since some teens with psychotic symptoms seem more likely to self-medicate with marijuana, it could be confounding the data that suggests pot somehow causes psychosis. Medical marijuana, it should of course be noted, is not intended to treat mental illness, and its full range of effects on developing brains remains poorly understood.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Study: ADHD Symptoms Persist Despite Medication in 9 Out of 10 Kids - Lindsay Abrams - The Atlantic

Study: ADHD Symptoms Persist Despite Medication in 9 Out of 10 Kids - Lindsay Abrams - The Atlantic


The current debate over ADHD medication focuses on whether the benefits -- improved concentration, better behavior, better performance in school -- outweigh the potential risks of medicating young children. Complicating all the abuse potential of ADHD drugs, with students using them off-label to get ahead in school and incidences of addiction, sometimes borne to tragic ends.


In the youngest children diagnosed with ADHD, parents may choose to eschew medication altogether in favor of alternative methods like changes in diet, exercise, and behavior modification programs. But a new study out of Johns Hopkins suggests that the "benefits" used to rationalize medication might not even exist. Or at least, don't have lasting impact.

The drugs may be just altering consciousness like alcohol does, it appears then that the person is being treated when they are just distracted by the drug's effects. This has also been suggested as to how antidepressants work, they show no efficacy better than placebo for mild to moderate depression. In an Iv-B economy small results in trials exploit tiny levels of signficance to sell drugs, when the I-O police are weak this can become like quack medicine. Over 10% of American take antidepressants the majority of which get no better results than placebo, now the same may be happening to children. 

The cause may be from other statistical trials not being done, there is a suggestion that side effects from Tylenol given to children may lead to autism and perhaps ADHD. 
Six years after diagnosis, given when they were about four and a half years old, 160 out of 180 children followed by the researchers continued to meet the criteria for moderate to severe ADHD. Over two-thirds of the children followed were on medication, but they met the clinical conditions for ADHD symptoms at rates slightly higher than the kids who hadn't been medicated (62 and 58 percent, respectively, for hyperactivity and impulsivity, and 65 and 62 percent, respectively, for inattention).
The researchers can't say whether the problem was poor drug choice, incorrect dosage, poor adherence, or medication just not being an effective treatment for preschoolers with ADHD. 
But having repeatedly checked in with parents, educators, and pediatricians, they were able to conclude that ADHD was chronic over the six years of observation, and that it was characterized by severe symptoms and impairment. For most kids, it appeared to be untreatable, at least using the current available methods.
The other interpretation that will probably be raised is that hyperactive behavior is normal in preschoolers, and that ADHD is wildly overdiagnosed. The authors write that seven percent of U.S. children are currently being treated for the condition. Regardless of whether that number's too high or too low, we clearly need better interventions.